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US Retail Sales Rise Unexpectedly in August, Stocks Mixed, WTI Oil Passes $71

As the market awaits the results of the Federal Reserve meeting, U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday with light trading volume, with the Dow and the S&P 500 hitting new intraday highs.

The Dow fell 15.90 points, or 0.04%, to close at 41,606.18; the Nasdaq rose 35.93 points, or 0.20%, to close at 17,628.06; the S&P 500 rose 1.49 points, or 0.03%, to close at 5,634.58.

Sector-wise, the energy sector led the S&P 500, with Halliburton and Devon Energy rising 3.13% and 2.07% respectively.

The healthcare sector saw the largest decline.

Among Chinese concept stocks, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closed up 1.83%.

Li Auto rose 12.28%, iQIYI rose 4.06%.

New Oriental rose 3.52%, Weibo rose 2.77%, JD.com rose 2.36%, Alibaba rose 1.32%, Pinduoduo rose 1.21%, and Zhihu rose 1.07%.

Wells Fargo Investment Strategy Analyst Austin Pickle believes that the U.S. stock market may not ease its difficulties soon.

He said that over the past seven years, the S&P 500 has experienced a peak at the end of each summer, followed by a pullback of 5% to 20%.

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With the market's ongoing concerns about the economy, geopolitical risks, and skepticism about the short-term prospects of artificial intelligence, the U.S. stock market may continue to struggle in the current season.

Bank of America: Homebuilding stocks usually perform well before rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve held a two-day interest rate meeting on Tuesday, and although the market expected the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed to rise, according to a recent market survey, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this month.

Among the 27 economists, strategists, and fund managers surveyed, 84% believe that the Fed will announce a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, and 74% of respondents believe that the U.S. economy is still likely to achieve a soft landing.

Sonu Varghese, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, believes that the Fed is very likely to announce a 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday.

He said that the market is currently inclined to expect a 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed, and the possibility of the Fed surprising investors by cutting rates by only 25 basis points is very low.

Although the work of fighting inflation seems to be over, it is expected that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points to deal with the downward labor market data.

Bank of America said that homebuilding stocks usually perform well before the Fed cuts rates and will rise significantly.

The bank's analyst Rafe Jadrosich said that in the three months before the last five initial rate cuts, homebuilding stocks outperformed the S&P 500 three times, and construction product stocks outperformed the market four times out of five.

In the past three months, homebuilding stocks have risen by 26%, construction product stocks have risen by 13%, while the S&P 500 has only risen by 2%.

Jadrosich also said that if the Fed starts to cut rates this month, the valuations of these two sectors will be higher than at any time when the Fed started to cut rates in the previous five instances.

U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in August.

In terms of economic data, despite market concerns about economic pullbacks, U.S. retail sales data in August were stronger than expected, showing consumer resilience.

According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, retail sales increased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, which, despite a significant decline from the revised value of the previous month, was still better than the market's expected decline of 0.2%.

Retail sales in August rose by 2.1% year-on-year.

Spending at grocery stores increased by 1.7%, and online retail increased by 1.4%.

With the decline in oil prices, gas station revenues fell by 1.2%, and sales at clothing and furniture stores each fell by 0.7%.

On the company side, after Intel plans to spin off its foundry business into a subsidiary and allow external financing, the company's stock price continued to rise and led the Dow.

However, Wall Street analysts remain cautious.

Bank of America maintained its "underperform" rating, and JPMorgan reiterated its "underweight" rating.

Bernstein, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo each reaffirmed their "in line with the market," "neutral," and "hold" ratings.

Intel's stock closed up 2.68%, at $21.47 per share.

Microsoft's stock rose 0.88%, at $435.15 per share.

The company raised its quarterly dividend by 10.7% to 83 cents per share, and the new dividend will be paid on December 12.

At the same time, the company also approved a new $60 billion stock buyback plan.

WTI oil price broke through $71.

In the commodity market, driven by the market's optimistic sentiment about the Fed's rate cut this week, as well as the impact of production interruptions in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. crude oil prices rose above $71 a barrel.

As the market focuses on the Fed's decision, the October delivery of WTI crude oil futures settled up 1.57%, at $71.19 a barrel.

The November delivery of Brent crude oil futures settled up 1.31%, at $73.70 a barrel.

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