The Federal Reserve is in a pickle.

They want to control inflation by significantly raising interest rates, but the result is a chain of bank bankruptcies.

If they stop raising rates to save the economy, employment data explodes.

Should they raise rates or not?

Regardless, the data has confirmed that the real estate, valued at $45 trillion, could collapse at any moment.

At this point, can we still expect Chinese buyers to take over?

According to data from the United States, the average residential housing price in the U.S. increased by about $200,000 at the beginning of the pandemic, and started to decline last year.

Due to strict control of housing loans, tight credit scales, rising financing costs, and rapid growth in personal housing mortgage interest rates, the demand for purchasing homes has also been suppressed.

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In another set of data, the total value of U.S. residential properties has dropped from nearly $48 trillion a quarter ago to the current $45 trillion, with a total decline of $2.4 trillion, equivalent to over 1.6 trillion yuan in RMB.

This is due to the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes over the past year, which have already wiped out $1.6 trillion in market value of the real estate in the hands of Americans.

A private equity manager who shorts the market mentioned that when they study commercial real estate and the residential housing market, the U.S. real estate may be mispriced by the market due to various risks, and this risk also makes the value of houses more likely to fall.

Now, the Federal Reserve is creating some new risk issues that affect the value of real estate.

Obviously, he is referring to interest rate hikes, and continuous ones.

We cannot only focus on the increased mortgage pressure brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, but also need to pay attention to the fact that the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes lead the economy into recession, causing a decrease in people's income.

Under the dual pressures, homebuyers may be forced to sell their homes at lower prices.

With the recent wave of layoffs in tech companies and more other companies, some analysts point out that the situation of white-collar unemployment may continue to worsen.

From a macro perspective, due to the instability of the global financial system, the economic situation has deteriorated, and global economic growth may turn into recession.

From a micro perspective, many hiring managers have indicated that companies have no recruitment plans in the near future, and the information posted online is outdated.

Outdated recruitment information is retained on the network only because companies want to let the outside world know that their operations are good and to appease existing employees to stabilize morale.

However, some experts have different views on the current wave of layoffs.

They believe that from the demand side of the talent market, there are still many white-collar jobs, and many established companies need the skills of professional white-collar workers during their transformation.

For example, while Walmart is laying off employees, it also needs more white-collar professionals in other areas.

Data shows that there is still a great demand for high-paying white-collar talents, and the unemployment rate of technical experts such as senior management is lower than the overall unemployment rate, indicating that white-collar workers still have a large market.

In response, real estate analysts point out that these high-end white-collar workers only account for a small part of the buyers, and more ordinary people will make the decision to sell their properties due to unemployment or fear of unemployment.

But as Americans are selling their homes, they naturally hope someone will take over.

In the past, many overseas buyers were willing to hold real estate in the U.S., including buyers from China.

But this time, Chinese buyers refuse to take over, on the contrary, Chinese buyers have started selling the properties they hold earlier.

As early as last year when the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates, this kind of selling has already started.

And in the recent wave of U.S. bank bankruptcies, the speed of Chinese selling real estate properties is even faster, and most of the deposits in the bank have been transferred to Asia.

People holding real estate have to sell because the pressure of mortgage loans is getting bigger and their income is getting worse.

At the same time, the buyer's market seems to have disappeared suddenly.

It seems that the U.S. real estate crisis is getting closer.