Last week, the United States released the latest key employment data, and the market can now be 100% certain about a rate cut in September.

This week, the U.S. August CPI is about to be announced.

One major news after another is coming, and the global financial market is on edge.

The latest unemployment rate is 4.2%, slightly down from the previous month's 4.3%, which seems like good news.

However, it is accompanied by a bigger bad news, that is, the number of new jobs added is only 142,000 people, far below the expected 165,000.

The former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve said that whether it is a 25-point or a 50-point cut, it should be cut as soon as possible.

But it is easy to make a decision to cut interest rates, how to avoid a large outflow of funds after the cut, especially into China, may be what the United States needs to consider carefully.

Advertisement

If according to the United States' original script, this round of interest rate hikes is very likely, the target is actually aimed at us.

However, the evolution of things has completely deviated from the preset target of the United States.

Although China's economy has suffered some difficulties, it has basically survived, but the U.S. economy has encountered serious difficulties.

Surprisingly, the U.S. Wall Street financial giants were the first to hold on.

The share price of JPMorgan Chase suddenly plunged sharply during the trading day, with the maximum drop exceeding 7%.

The drop narrowed at the close, but it still fell by 5.19%.

This is the largest single-day drop for the investment bank in the past four years.

The poor performance of the Wall Street giants is actually just a microcosm of many current problems in the United States.

The latest small and medium-sized enterprise confidence index announced this week has also set the largest drop in more than two years.

Among the 10 sub-indicators, 8 are falling, among which the expectation for future sales fell by 9 points.

In addition to the economy, there may also be big news in the U.S. political arena.

The debate between Harris and Trump is about to be held, and the data of the polls after the debate is likely to further affect the financial market.

Now the United States has to announce a rate cut, which is actually equivalent to officially declaring the previous layout completely failed.

So, is the good time coming for us?

Not long ago, the economist of Morgan Stanley UK warned that once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, the U.S. dollar assets in the hands of Chinese enterprises may be sold on a large scale, and at least 100 billion U.S. dollars will flow back to China.

But in fact, what is said here is only the U.S. dollar assets in the hands of Chinese enterprises.

If we consider that a large amount of funds outside China will also flow out of the United States, some of which will inevitably flow into China, it can be seen that the future capital inflow into China may reach the level of 100 billion U.S. dollars.

The previous layout of the United States has not succeeded, and it will definitely try to prevent funds from flowing into China to support China's construction in the future.

So what methods does the United States have?

First, further economic blockade, for example, remove us from Swift, this move has been used on Russia.

Therefore, at the BRICS summit in October this year, we will focus on discussing the establishment of the BRICS settlement system.

Second, the United States may create more geopolitical conflicts around us, causing international capital to dare not flow into China from a risk perspective.

However, the direction of global capital flow has been basically determined, and the exchange rate of the renminbi has been rising continuously, whether these extracurricular moves by the United States can still be effective?