During the three-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the most noteworthy event is the continuous rise of Hong Kong stocks.

After bottoming out and rebounding yesterday, they continued to break upward today.

The Hang Seng Index reached a maximum intraday increase of 1.69%, closing up 1.37%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.12%.

From the recent two-day trend, Hong Kong stocks are on a continuous uptrend.

Some may ask, what good news is there in Hong Kong stocks during the A-share market holiday?

In my view, there is not much actual good news.

The only anticipated good news is the interest rate cut in the US dollar, as Thursday morning Beijing time is an important moment for the Federal Reserve's decision.

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Whether there will be a rate cut in September and by how much depends on this moment.

From the current market atmosphere, as always, the market still believes that there will be an unexpected rate cut.

The majority of market views suggest a reduction of 50 basis points.

If this is the case, it would be beyond expectations.

I feel that Hong Kong stock funds seem to be betting on this.

Otherwise, the continuous rise of Hong Kong stocks cannot be explained.

If the Federal Reserve really cuts interest rates significantly, the most direct impact on other economies outside the US dollar would be on Hong Kong stocks.

At that time, the elasticity of Hong Kong stocks would far exceed that of A-shares.

The most uncertain thing now is how accurate the market's expectations are.

Looking at past cases, such empty promises have been made many times, and the market has been excited many times, but each time it ends in disappointment.

In this regard, I am more convinced by the recent rise in Hong Kong stocks, but the sustainability of the rise, relying solely on the good news of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, is likely to fluctuate.

Another factor in the rise of Hong Kong stocks is related to the upward movement of overseas indices.

A typical example is the FTSE A50 futures, which were almost ten consecutive days of decline before, but have shown a significant rebound in the last two days.

This may also be related to the US dollar interest rate cut.

Looking at the current trend of this index, it is still in a bearish arrangement process, but after continuous rebound, it is still a good thing for A-shares.

How will A-shares move next?

The reason for saying this is that I feel the recent trend of the FTSE A50 futures is very similar to the Shanghai Composite Index of A-shares, as the Shanghai Composite Index is in a continuous new low process.

From this perspective, when the FTSE A50 futures show a continuous rebound, it will drive A-shares.

Looking at this point, A-shares at the 2700 point integer level have finally found a slight support for good news.

Can these good news really promote the rebound of A-shares when they open tomorrow?

I think this is still an unknown.

On the one hand, it is because A-shares themselves are too weak.

Looking at past cases, after the surrounding market has risen sharply, A-shares will open high the next day, and it is generally no problem to maintain the upward trend for half an hour in the morning.

After this time period, the probability of diving is usually greater.

In this regard, whether A-shares will perform like Hong Kong stocks in the last two days tomorrow is still worth observing.

However, from my own perspective, although I don't have too much expectation for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is in the early morning of Thursday, and A-shares open on Wednesday.

In this regard, A-shares can also have a day's expectation for this good news, that is, rise first, and then say whether the expectation of interest rate cut falls through.

From this perspective, A-shares at least have a good day to live.

Finally, let's talk about the questions of many friends in the background.

The person in charge of the central bank said "deflation".

I think whether to respond or not cannot change the fact.

It is now a reality that everyone has money but does not spend it, or dares not to spend it, and consumption continues to decline.

The key is how to deal with it.

Some people say that a large amount of money can be put into circulation, which cannot play a role.

The key is to make business active.

Some places issue consumption vouchers, which cannot change anything.

The main thing is to let everyone have a good expectation for the future economic prospects and personal pension security, as well as education and medical care.

When these expectations change, you will see if everyone dares to consume.

The core lies in the policy expectation, which is essentially not much related to the person in charge's statement.

Disclaimer: The content in the article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice or tips.

The stock market is risky, please invest carefully!